U.S. voters may be seriously fatigued after last year’s Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, but voters in New Jersey and Virginia will have the chance to cast their ballot once again this November to elect a new governor. These races are extremely important because they are a gauge on how the country feels about the current administration and the feelings towards each political party going into next year’s midterm elections.
Historically, these two governors’ races act like a political crystal ball. These races allow the populations of these two states to evaluate the current presidential administration. Shannon Clausen, a freshman, remarked, “I think the country pays such close attention to these two elections because it would be a reflection of how the president is doing in his first year in office. [Expert political analyzers] want to see if people like him, or if he is doing a good job.” When a president’s approval rating starts to fall, voters in these two states typically send the opposing party in the White House to the governor’s mansion. Typically, these off-year elections favor the party that is not in the White House. According to an NPR article entitled “Here’s Why the Other 48 States Care Who’s Governor of Virginia and New Jersey” (www.npr.org), “One year after the election of President Barack Obama (who carried both states), Virginia and New Jersey chose Republican governors. Both these GOP [“Grand Old Party”/Republican] stars of 2009, Bob McDonnell in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey, harnessed voter concerns over the emerging health care law and other aspects of the new administration. Both would soon be mentioned as potential national candidates.”
These races in 2009 foreshadowed major losses for the Democratic party in the 2010 midterm elections where they lost 63 seats. Nicole DiBenedetto, social studies teacher, said “In this political climate, elections are extremely
important and telling. [In] these cases, these elections could be really telling for the midterm elections depending on the way each state votes; [it] could be an indication on how they will vote in the midterm elections.”
The stakes are also very high due to these races testing how much these political parties have a grip on these current states. Republicans made major gains in these states, especially during the Presidential election. New Jersey had a 5% shift towards the right, and Virginia had a 3%-point shift towards the right, according to Politico. According to a New Jersey Monitor article titled “New Jersey Governor” (www.newjerseymonitor.com), the top issues in the New Jersey election are budget, NJ Transit, health benefits for state workers, and utility prices. These topics are an opportunity for the Democratic candidate in the race, Mikie Sherill, to show that Democrats can still talk about these topics and deliver a winning message, even in spite of their Presidential loss last year. Furthermore, DiBenedetto added, “Particularly New Jersey, typically, a blue state, would be really telling if they elected a Republican governor.”
Political junkies refer to these races as “bellwethers”, which are early indicators of where the political landscape is going. This is often why many high-profile politicians campaign heavily in these states, even if the governorship does not directly affect them. These races are not just about who becomes the governor of these states, but they are about the message that these results send to the rest of the country. Gabriella Gioulis, a junior, added, “I think New Jersey and Virginia having governor races right after the presidential election matter because they show how people are feeling about the president and their party. The results are usually seen as a sign of what could happen in the midterms, and whichever party wins, usually gets a big boost in support.”
While many Americans may not be paying attention to the New Jersey and Virginia elections, politicians and political insiders are. Gioulis continued, “So, even though it is only two states, the elections get more national attention.” The outcomes of these elections will undoubtedly be studied and will shape how the two major parties start to create their main message for the 2026 midterm elections.
