There is something about The Oscars that I just cannot get enough of. Maybe it is because its date signifies the end of winter, or maybe it is because when I was younger it was a reason for me to stay up past 11 p.m. on a school night. Either way, this often-ridiculed awards ceremony has always felt like an unofficial holiday, a celebration of a film industry that may not always deserve celebration, but sure knows how to congratulate itself really well. And perhaps this year more than ever, The Oscars has maintained a magical component it rarely has: uncertainty. While most years there is a clear frontrunner for Best Picture – last year’s Nomadland was almost a guaranteed win, and 2020 was pretty much a 50/50 split for Parasite and 1917 – this year, not so much. Sure, The Power of The Dog leads with an impressive 12 nominations, and certain categories are near-definite wins for certain films, but overall, there is a ton of variability for the winning films. But, after some extensive research, viewings of multiple top contenders, and an unfortunately thorough scouring of Golden Globes tweets, I have decided on distinct predictions for winners in each of the main categories. 

BEST PICTURE:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

WHAT WILL WIN: The Power of the Dog

POSSIBLE SURPRISE WIN: West Side Story

Best Picture is a bit of a toss-up this year. The Power of the Dog received near-universal acclaim and is leading with the most nominations of the night, so it has the best odds of taking home the most coveted award of the night, but it would be hard to overlook West Side Story, a visually stunning film exceeded most critics’ expectations (if it did not bomb at the box office, I would probably give my prediction to this over Power), and Belfast has that crowd-pleasing, Oscar-baiting charm that the Academy never can seem to get enough of. There are some other possible surprise wins – a lot of people really liked Dune – but these are certainly the top contenders as of right now.

BEST ACTRESS:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

WHO WILL WIN: Kristen Stewart

POSSIBLE SURPRISE WIN: Olivia Colman

While Spencer, the critic-dividing Princess Diana biopic, received no other nominations this year, Stewart’s performance in the film was one of the most talked about of the year, and she has a very good shot of taking home Best Actress this year. But, do not rule out Olivia Colman; the Academy loves her – why would they not? – and her work in The Lost Daughter was excellent enough to warrant an award.

BEST ACTOR:

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

WHO WILL WIN: Will Smith

POSSIBLE SURPRISE WIN: Benedict Cumberbatch

Best Actor is another toss-up. Unlike Best Picture, this category is really going to come down to three nominees: Will Smith, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Andrew Garfield. All three were showered with praise in their respective roles, but I would give the edge to Will Smith, since nearly everyone alive seems to want him to win an Oscar.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

WHO WILL WIN: Steven Spielberg OR Jane Campion

Best Director, while one of the most well-respected awards of Oscar night, is usually relegated to more of a consolation category. Was there a movie that could have easily deserved to win Best Picture but lost to another? Chances are, it will win Best Director. West Side Story is Spielberg’s most electric work in years, while Campion received heaps of well-deserved praise of Power, so my guess is whichever film takes home Best Picture, the opposite will be landing this category. If neither film wins Best Picture (looking at you, Belfast), I would probably give the edge to Spielberg. Probably.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

WHO WILL WIN: Ariana DeBose

POSSIBLE SURPRISE WIN: Aunjanue Ellis

While there are others who have a chance at winning in this category, with Aunjanue Ellis not being a wholly unreasonable prediction, I am almost certain Ariana DeBose will be named Best Supporting Actress. Not only was she absolutely incredible in West Side Story, but such a win would be a historic moment for the Oscars, as Rita Moreno won Best Supporting Actress for the same role 60 years prior. I doubt the Academy would miss out on that kind of award symmetry.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kostur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

WHO WILL WIN: Kodi Smit-McPhee

There is little chance that The Power of the Dog will leave the Oscars without any acting wins. Every member of the film’s main cast – Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemmons, and Kodi Smit-McPhee – all were nominated for awards, and there is a tangible chance of either Cumberbatch or Dunst winning in their respective categories. But, far and away it is Smit-McPhee who has the best chance of winning. The Academy loves newcomers almost as much as they love old pros, and the young actor certainly fits the first category; not to mention, his layered performance in Power has been regularly cited as one of the best of the year. Out of every main category this year, this is the one I have the most doubt about.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

WHAT WILL WIN: Encanto

POSSIBLE SURPRISE WIN: Luca

As much as I would like to see Pixar take home another Best Animated Feature trophy, I have to admit that Encanto is probably walking home with the award. The Disney movie blew up this November with songs like “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” and “Surface Pressure” topping the Billboard charts for weeks. While I happen to be in the very small minority that thinks Encanto has been slightly over-hyped, it would be a deserved win for both the film’s creative team and for Disney.